Seconds to Disaster: Are We Ready for The Big One?

THE PHILIPPINES SITS ON THE PACIFIC RING OF FIRE, A REGION NOTORIOUS FOR FREQUENT SEISMIC ACTIVITY. OUR BEAUTIFUL ARCHIPELAGO, WHILE RICH IN NATURAL WONDERS, HAS ALSO BEEN SHAPED—AND AT TIMES DEVASTATED—BY THE POWERFUL FORCES OF NATURE. TODAY, A NEW-OLD THREAT LOOMS OVER US: THE BIG ONE.

Although "new" to many younger Filipinos, The Big One is actually part of our geological history. According to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), the last major movement of the West Valley Fault occurred in 1658. Now, over 360 years later, experts warn that another massive earthquake is likely to occur within the next 400 to 600 years. Based on seismic patterns, we are now within the window of possibility.

The West Valley Fault, a major fault line that slices through highly urbanized areas like Rizal, Marikina, San Juan, Mandaluyong, Pasig, Pateros, Taguig, Pasay, Parañaque, Las Piñas, and Laguna, has the potential to unleash an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 or higher. These are not remote barangays. These are bustling urban centers, home to millions of Filipinos, crisscrossed by flyovers, malls, high-rise condos, and schools. The expected intensity of ground shaking will reach Intensity 8, which is considered "very destructive." Buildings will sway violently, infrastructure may collapse, and thousands of lives could be affected in a matter of seconds. Recent studies conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), in partnership with Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) and PHIVOLCS show grim projections: if The Big One were to strike today, an estimated 50,000 people could perish, at least 170,000 residential buildings would be damaged beyond repair, and nearly 12% of all residential structures in Metro Manila could collapse. These statistics are not meant to frighten, but to awaken us to the urgency of preparedness.

The recent earthquake in Myanmar has once again stirred public concern. It's a sobering reminder that tectonic activity remains active in our region. The terrifying truth is that we have no way of predicting precisely when The Big One will hit. It could happen tonight, or ten years from now. It might strike while children are having fun in their classrooms or while workers are stuck in rush-hour traffic. This unpredictability makes earthquakes uniquely cruel.

Typhoons give us time to prepare, even if only for a few days. But earthquakes? They arrive as sudden roars, catching us off guard, turning places of comfort into sites of fear.

SO WHAT MUST WE DO?

The first line of defense is awareness and action. Fortunately, the Philippines has made strides in improving its infrastructure resilience. The National Structural Code of the Philippines (NSCP) has modernized standards for earthquake-resistant buildings. Structures built after 1992, particularly public infrastructure such as hospitals, bridges, and government buildings, are generally compliant with the updated code. But for older buildings and unregistered homes, the risk is significantly higher. Many homes in Metro Manila and nearby provinces were built before the implementation of these updated guidelines. Worse, a significant number of homes— especially in informal settlements—were built without permits or adherence to any structural standards at all. These are the communities that are most at risk. If you live in a house built before these standards were implemented, consider consulting with a structural engineer about retrofitting or reinforcing your home.

Aside from structural integrity, survival depends on preparation: • Secure your surroundings. Anchor heavy furniture, appliances, and shelves to walls. This simple step can prevent injuries caused by falling objects. • Prepare a survival kit. Each household should have a go-bag containing drinking water, canned food, flashlight, battery-powered radio, whistle, first-aid supplies, and essential documents. • Create a family emergency plan. Identify safe zones in your home, agree on a meeting place outside, and assign responsibilities. • Know your local evacuation routes and emergency hotlines. • Stay informed. Follow updates from PHIVOLCS and local disaster risk reduction offices. Last April, the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) held its 2nd Earthquake Preparedness Summit, drawing in hundreds of barangay leaders, educators, engineers, and volunteers from across Metro Manila and CALABARZON. The summit emphasized the urgent need for multi-sectoral collaboration and stressed the importance of integrating scientific data with local disaster risk reduction plans. Workshops covered topics such as retrofitting techniques, psychological f irst aid, and post-quake rescue coordination.

OCD Administrator Undersecretary Ariel Nepomuceno underscored the summit’s core message: "Preparedness must not begin in the aftermath. It begins in the classroom, the city hall, the barangay center, and most importantly, in our homes." The summit also launched an online platform called HandaPH, which offers modules on disaster awareness and allows users to simulate evacuation scenarios based on their actual address. It is also crucial for local governments and barangays to actively conduct earthquake drills and educate residents. Preparedness cannot rest solely on individuals—it is a collective responsibility.

TRUTH OR MYTH? DEBUNKING THE BIG ONE BUZZ In the age of social media, news travels fast—but so do rumors, half-truths, and urban legends. Earthquakes, because of their unpredictability, are fodder for fear-driven stories. But how much of what we hear about The Big One is true? Let’s set the record straight.

YOU CAN CHECK IF YOU’RE ON WEST VALLEY FAULT YES, THIS IS ONE OF THE MOST USEFUL TOOLS OUT THERE. VISIT: FAULTFINDER.PHIVOLCS.DOST.GOV.PH

BONUS TRIVIA: BUILDINGS ON “WHEELS”? Some premium high-rises use base isolation tech, allowing them to “float” during quakes. These structures don’t roll—but they absorb seismic energy like shock absorbers. We may not be able to prevent The Big One, but we can certainly reduce its impact. Now is the time to ask ourselves: Are our homes ready? Are our schools ready? Are we ready? Let’s not wait for tragedy to teach us the value of preparation. The ground may one day shake beneath our feet, but our resolve, and readiness, can keep us standing.

BE ALERT. BE PREPARED. SURVIVE.